Economy

"The most important thing is the weather in the house, everything else is nonsense"

Words from the song

Last week, on April 4-5, two important meetings took place in Samarkand: the EU-Central Asia Summit with the participation of the leaders of the European Union and the presidents of Central Asia, and a high-level climate forum dedicated to the summit, which was attended by the leaders of the two regions, as well as ministers and heads of international financial institutions, a number of regional structures, representatives of civil society organizations and the expert community.

You can find a lot of information on the Internet about the past meetings, outlining the key provisions of the positions of those who spoke at these meetings, as reported by the media and the participants themselves. The author of these lines also took part in the second meeting, for which I would like to immediately express my gratitude to the organizers of the meeting – the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change of Uzbekistan.

Of course, these were important meetings that laid the strategic directions for both interregional and intraregional cooperation in a very wide range of areas – climate change, energy, the “green economy”, water resources, ecology, transport infrastructure, etc.

However, the speeches of the EU and Central Asian leaders at the climate forum evoked a whole range of mixed impressions and conclusions, which were reinforced by fresh impressions from the exchange of views with competent colleagues in the region, whom the author has known for many years. These impressions were reinforced as he reflected on what he had heard and had access to more information upon returning home.

Therefore, within the framework of this article, I would like to share these impressions with a thinking audience in the context of a number of questions that have been raised in many publications in recent years and even decades – what is more important and a priority for the countries of our region – questions of economic growth and development with the attraction of appropriate investments, foreign or domestic, or questions of climate change and ecology, which are eternally competing with each other.

Especially in the context of the “tectonic processes of global transformation” and the trade and economic war declared by D. Trump to the entire world, the beginning of which coincided with the opening days of the meetings in Samarkand.

In this regard, I would like to remind you that in the articles of recent years, the author has constantly emphasized that in these "tectonic processes" the Central Asian region is shifting to the center of interests of the leading geopolitical players, between whom there is a fierce competition for the region’s resources and the corresponding influence. This was once again confirmed in the results of the past meeting, where the EU chair emphasized her difference from other geopolitical players.

Thus, Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union has prepared a 12 billion euro investment package for the countries of Central Asia within the framework of the Global Gateway program and listed four priority areas for cooperation: the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, critical raw materials, green energy and digital communications.

Of the 12 billion euros, three billion will be directed to the transport sector, 2.5 billion to critical raw materials, 6.4 billion to energy projects, and another 100 million to develop satellite internet. "This is truly the beginning of a new era in our ancient friendship," von der Leyen emphasized.

The European Union considers Central Asia a strategic partner for the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor within the framework of the Global Gateway program. It is assumed that thanks to the construction of transport communications, the speed of cargo transportation between Europe and Central Asia will be doubled - up to 15 days.

In addition, the European Union is interested in cooperation with the countries of the region to extract critically important types of raw materials. "These riches are not just minerals, but the foundation of the economy of the future, which inevitably attracts the attention of global players. But unlike those who see here only a source of raw materials for export, Europe offers a fundamentally different approach - the creation of a full production cycle right in the region," the head of the EC promised.

The host of the summit, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, called investments in economic and technological modernization a priority for cooperation between Europe and the countries of the region. According to him, today all the "captains" of business, industrial and innovative leaders of Europe are successfully working in Uzbekistan and neighboring countries, including the corporations TOTAL, Siemens, Linde, Airbus, BASF, Orano and many others.

Mirziyoyev also announced an agreement to open an office of the European Investment Bank in Tashkent, promised to strengthen cooperation with the European Union in the development of critical mineral resources, and announced the ratification of a project to supply electricity from Central Asia to Europe. According to him, Uzbekistan plans to increase the share of renewable energy to 54% by 2030.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said he was counting on trade preferences and investments from the European Union. "We aim to further expand the export of Tajik products to European markets, including through the use of mutual trade preferences," the Tajik leader noted, recalling the EU’s participation in the construction of hydropower facilities in the country.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that Kazakhstan is ready to increase exports to European countries by over two billion euros. "Kazakhstan remains a reliable supplier of hydrocarbons to Europe. Our country accounts for about 13% of all oil imports of the European Union, the bulk of which goes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (a joint project with Russia — RFI)," Tokayev recalled and called for the development of alternative routes.

In addition, the Kazakh leader announced the start of joint work with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan on the construction of a transmission line across the Caspian Sea with further access to European markets. Finally, he recalled the importance of cooperation in the extraction of rare earth metals. According to Tokayev, Kazakhstan produces 19 of the 34 types of raw materials needed by the EU economy.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov also spoke about the joint development of critical raw materials in his speech. "Kyrgyzstan has significant reserves of rare and valuable metals. We propose to intensify cooperation in this area, formalizing it in the format of a separate partnership or "road map", similar to what has already been done between the European Union and some of our neighbors," the press service quotes him as saying.

The President of Turkmenistan also offered his services in the energy and logistics sectors. "Turkmenistan is firmly committed to a serious energy dialogue with the EU at a new substantive level and is ready to implement practical steps," Serdar Berdimuhamedov said in his speech, mentioning his readiness to provide the capacity of the Turkmenbashi seaport on the Caspian coast and the country’s road infrastructure.

These are, in brief, and as reported by the media, the main economic results of the summit, on which the corresponding final documents were adopted. The future will show how much they will be implemented in practice in the conditions of the uncertainty of the above-mentioned trade war and the current turbulent geopolitical processes.

However, for the author of these lines it was much more interesting how the leaders of the EU and Central Asia assess environmental and climate problems, which are a consequence of economic interests and are in eternal competition or even antagonism with each other, which he has been constantly writing about throughout his professional career, summing up the results of his participation in many international conferences, forums and summits.

At these meetings, high-ranking officials always spoke correct and polished phrases about “importance,” “necessity,” “responsibility to future generations,” etc., but as time passed, the phrases remained phrases, and environmental and climate problems were not solved and worsened, and if they were solved, then only as a last resort.

In this regard, the meetings held in Samarkand were no exception, where they also discussed the Aral catastrophe, the problems of climate change, the melting of glaciers, the importance of solving the whole range of issues related to these problems, but they spoke in a somewhat truncated, routine and abbreviated form.

It was felt that the speechwriters who prepared speeches for their patrons were squeezing out the necessary formulations without understanding the essence of the existing problems, which have deep and systemic roots, and for them, economic issues and attracting investment are more important than environmental and climate issues. How familiar this all is...

And again, the scales between economic interests and environmental and climate issues tipped in favor of the former, although the past summit was dedicated specifically to climate issues.

It should be recalled that at the UN climate summit in 2023 in New York, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan already spoke about the trends of temperature increase in our region, which are twice as high as global trends; their statements were already analyzed in the article from September 2023 “What the presidents of Central Asia talked about at the UN summits in New York.”

As has been repeatedly emphasized before, after such a statement, all government bodies and international organizations in our region should be concerned and take urgent steps to neutralize such a blatant trend in the form of appropriate adaptation programs and projects with priority funding from the international community and domestic funding sources.

However, at the recent summit, only the President of Kazakhstan K. Tokayev again reminded of this trend, but he reminded it somehow routinely and sluggishly without clear accents and specific measures necessary to combat this trend in the countries of Central Asia. It is interesting to note that this most important provision was noted in her speech by Ursula von der Leyen, but adding to it ... Europe, but in the European region, as is known, there is no shortage of water resources.

What does this indicate?!

This shows that presidential speechwriters, while working on draft speeches, still do not understand the essence and consequences of this most important problem: the accelerated rise in temperature leads not only to the accelerated melting of glaciers and the reduction of water resources, but also affects the productivity of dry and irrigated lands and pastures, and therefore the productivity of agricultural products in general.

The author has been drawing attention to this problem for more than 10 years and constantly writes and speaks on various platforms that we are already late in taking preventive measures to adapt to climate change, which should have been taken the day before yesterday. In particular, this was probably first written about in the 2012 article “Water and Politics – War or Peace?” and all subsequent articles on climate issues were also devoted to this issue.

It is quite surprising that in the speech of the President of Kazakhstan K. Tokayev, who currently chairs the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), there was no mention of the activities of this important regional organization, as well as in the speeches of other presidents of Central Asian countries, with the exception of the President of Turkmenistan S. Berdimuhamedov.

This circumstance can also be seen as a lack of understanding on the part of the speechwriters who prepared draft speeches for their patrons of the importance and role of this organization in solving the whole range of problems related to climate, water resources, ecology and the “green economy” in our region as a whole.

It is obvious that for them, the most important and priority issues are precisely those of a financial and economic nature, which in the long term, even without due consideration of environmental and climatic issues, can only worsen the existing environmental situation, especially in interstate relations.

In fairness, it should be noted that only the speech of the President of Kazakhstan K. Tokayev contained the thesis that it is necessary to find the right balance between economic growth and climate problems, and listed a number of measures that, in the opinion of the speechwriter, should contribute to finding such a balance.

Similar measures were listed in speeches by other Central Asian presidents, but without a conscious and competent link to the above-mentioned trend, such measures seem clearly insufficient.

These, in brief, are the main impressions from the Samarkand meetings, which once again confirmed what has been written in many articles in recent years, that without a competent and professional approach to environmental and climate issues at the national and regional levels, we will not be able to solve the complex set of problems that have been accumulating for years and decades.

And if we only repeat smooth, routine and well-trained diplomatic phrases, without taking specific preventive measures, then the corresponding consequences will not be long in coming. In fact, they are already coming, as evidenced by the numerous climatic cataclysms of recent years and the very fact of holding such a high-level forum, but in addition to uttering the right phrases, we also need to take the right and competent actions...

Ismail Dairov

07.04.2025