Turkey’s Crucial Decision as Assad Exits and Russia Retreats from Syria
The unexpected resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his subsequent departure have thrown the region into uncertainty, highlighting Russia’s struggles to maintain its foothold in the Middle East amid its protracted war in Ukraine. Assad’s decision to step down and oversee a peaceful transition has accelerated the evacuation of Russian military assets from Syria, raising critical questions for Ankara about its role and obligations under the Montreux Convention.
With reports of Russian weapons being removed through Syrian ports, Turkish authorities face mounting pressure to formally prohibit the passage of military cargo through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus. Enforcing such a ban would not only adhere to the Montreux Convention, which regulates naval traffic through the straits, but also signal Ankara’s position in the shifting geopolitical landscape.
The collapse of Syria’s military disorganized and largely abandoning its positions has created a power vacuum that insurgent groups are swiftly exploiting. Despite holding a numerical advantage in key regions, Syrian forces retreated chaotically, leaving Moscow to face the fallout. Russia, already stretched thin by its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, now risks being mired in a protracted and costly conflict in Syria without clear prospects for a decisive victory.
Even if Russia deploys a larger contingent to stabilize the region, the task of re-establishing control over critical territories could devolve into a grueling war of attrition. Russian war bloggers have already voiced concerns about the vulnerability of Moscow’s bases in Tartous and Khmeimim, both of which are increasingly under threat.
The fall of Assad underscores Russia’s strategic overreach. According to Ukraine’s foreign ministry, the situation in Syria reveals the Kremlin’s inability to sustain operations on multiple fronts. “Events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its closest allies for the sake of continued aggression against Ukraine,” the ministry said in a statement.
Russia has begun evacuating its military assets from Syria, with reports of warships, including the Admiral Grigorovich frigate and other vessels, leaving Tartous for Novorossiysk. Aircraft are reportedly transferring weapons and equipment from Khmeimim air base, while civilian ships are being used to ferry military cargo in apparent attempts to circumvent scrutiny.
One such operation allegedly involved a fishing vessel transferring weapons to the civilian bulk carrier BLOOM in neutral waters, with the shipment bound for Novorossiysk. If confirmed, such actions would further highlight the precariousness of Russia’s logistical operations in the region.
Ankara’s response to these developments will be closely watched. As Russia relies on the Bosphorus Strait for its evacuation routes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a critical decision. Granting passage to Russian military cargo would violate the Montreux Convention, which restricts the transport of war materials through the straits during times of conflict.
Erdoğan’s choice could redefine Turkey’s role in the Middle East and its relations with both NATO allies and Moscow. Supporting Russian evacuation efforts risks alienating Western partners, while blocking military shipments could escalate tensions with the Kremlin.
As the geopolitical chessboard shifts, the last move may rest with Erdoğan. Will Turkey align with NATO’s interests, or will it gamble on preserving its delicate balance with Moscow? The region and the world awaits his decision.
Mykola Volkivskyi, Researcher, The Kosciuszko Foundation Scholar
